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Year : 2020  |  Volume : 9  |  Issue : 1  |  Page : 199

World one-hundred days after COVID-19 outbreak: Incidence, case fatality rate, and trend

1 Research Center for Environmental Determinants of Health, Health Institute, Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences, Kermanshah, Iran
2 Department of Health Management, Health School, Arak University of Medical Sciences, Arak, Iran
3 Modeling Of Noncommunicable Diseases Research Center; Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran
4 Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
5 Department of Psychology, Payame Noor University, Urmia, Iran

Correspondence Address:
Dr. Jafar Yahyavi Dizaj
Department of Health Management and Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran
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Source of Support: None, Conflict of Interest: None

DOI: 10.4103/jehp.jehp_483_20

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BACKGROUND: The prevalence of viral diseases is on the rise and has caused many problems for public health. COVID-19 is a new viral outbreak in the world. This study aimed to investigate the trends of incidence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 in the world by April 30, 2020. METHODS: This was a descriptive-analytical study. We investigated the number of cases and deaths in 35 selected countries and regions of the WHO that had at least 10,000 cases by the time of the study. In addition, the incidence and CFR of COVID-19 were investigated. Finally, time trends of the number of cases, deaths, and CFR were investigated using ordinary least squares regression models. RESULTS: The total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was 3,090,184. The European region had the highest number of COVID-19 patients (1,434,649 [46.43%]). Ukraine with 10,406 and the USA with 1,003,974 cases have reported the lowest and highest confirmed cases, respectively. In addition, the European region and the African region with 157.13 and 2.50 patients per 100,000 population had the highest and the lowest incidence rate, respectively. India (2.44) and Spain (455.69) had the lowest and the highest incidence rate per 100,000 population, respectively. In the world, 217,759 deaths have happened, of which 135,961 (62.44%) were reported in the European region. Furthermore, the USA had the highest number of deaths (52,428) due to COVID-19. CFR was 7.05% in the world, which ranged from 3.74% in the African region and 9.48% in the European region. The number of patients and deaths due to COVID-19 had increasing trends in all countries, and the trend of CFR just for Iran and Ukraine was negative. CONCLUSION: The countries had different trends in the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. However, regarding the increasing trend of the disease in the world, it will be more important to rely on public prevention strategies. It is necessary to apply and continue public health policies at national and global levels till the control of the disease.

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